Jurors could render their verdict in Donald Trump’s hush money case as soon as next week, potentially impacting the 2024 White House race. Trump has pleaded not guilty to 34 counts of falsifying business records to cover up a payment that secured the silence of porn star Stormy Daniels shortly before the 2016 election. Daniels had threatened to reveal an alleged 2006 sexual encounter with Trump, which he denies.
The New York case, considered the least consequential of the four criminal prosecutions Trump faces, has forced the Republican presidential candidate to spend more time in court than campaigning recently. It has drawn significant attention as the only case likely to go to trial before his Nov. 5 election face-off with Democratic President Joe Biden.
Here’s how three potential outcomes—guilty verdict, acquittal, or hung jury—could affect the presidential campaign.
Guilty Verdict
A guilty verdict could pose significant political danger for Trump, with opinion polls indicating potential harm in an election potentially decided by tens of thousands of votes in battleground states. According to an April Reuters/Ipsos poll, one in four Republicans would not vote for Trump if found guilty, and 60% of independents said they would not support him if convicted.
Republican pollster Whit Ayres doubts that a quarter of Republicans would shun Trump if convicted, but believes even a small number of moderate Republicans and independents turning away could help Biden in a close election. Ayres noted that the nature of the New York case, brought by a Democratic prosecutor with untested legal strategies, allows Trump and Republicans to frame a guilty verdict as a political hit job.
“If I were designing a case that Republicans could dismiss as a partisan witch hunt, it would look like the one in New York,” Ayres said. Republican consultant Tricia McLaughlin, who worked on Vivek Ramaswamy’s campaign, suggested a guilty verdict would psychologically impact Trump, who hates losing, and divert more financial resources to legal bills due to likely appeals.
Bill Galston, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, expects a guilty verdict to have minimal impact on the presidential race, comparing the case to “lying about sex,” which he believes many Americans view as commonplace. Galston served in President Bill Clinton’s administration, marked by similar scandals.
Not Guilty Verdict
Consultants across the political spectrum agree that an acquittal would be a significant victory for Trump. He could use it to bolster his claims that all charges against him lack legal merit. Trump faces federal and state charges in Washington and Georgia for attempting to overturn his 2020 loss to Biden and federal charges in Florida for mishandling classified documents. He has pleaded not guilty in all cases.
“It’s great fodder for him,” McLaughlin said. “He will say, ‘I won this sham trial in New York, and I’ll win the other trials too.’” Democratic consultant Karen Finney noted that while an acquittal would vindicate Trump’s core supporters, the lurid trial details and central allegation of a hush money payment to a porn star could still harm him with suburban women.
Hung Jury
If jurors cannot agree on a unanimous verdict, resulting in a hung jury and mistrial, Trump will likely spin it as a victory, though without the validation an acquittal would provide. The trial has kept Trump in the news, which he enjoys, said Republican consultant John Feehery, but a mistrial would end that without giving Trump a “clean bill of health.”
Finney expects Trump to lash out at his perceived enemies more harshly once free of the trial judge’s gag order, regardless of the verdict. She added that the tawdry facts of the case are now public, and a mistrial would indicate that at least some jurors believed Trump was guilty.
